A Compact Analysis of the Achievement and Prospective Planning in Power Sector in Bangladesh.

Market overview:

According to Bangladesh Power Development Board electricity demand in Bangladesh has been increasing by 200MW per year since 1996. The total demand is projected to be more than 11497 MW by 2018 where the contribution of the public sector is 5933MW, the private sector is 5064MW & 500MW from import (Cross-border trading of 500 MW power with India has begun in October 2013). Possibilities of trading of hydropower from Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar are being explored. The highest generation so far was 6675 MW recorded on 12/07/2013 and it is increasing gradually. Government has prepared the Power System Master Plan 2010 (PSMP 2010). The Bangladesh Power Sector Master The plan indicates that to attain an 8% GDP. According to the PSMP 2010 the estimated demand for power would be about 19,000 MW in 2021 and 34,000 MW in 2030(ref: Power Division). It has been estimated that power outage in Bangladesh results a loss of annual industrial output of $1 billion. Power is one of the prime reasons for slow GDP growth and the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) has recognized the power sector as a priority sector. GOB has decided to build more power projects through the private sector and public-private partnership.

Generation Planning:

Regardless of financial constraints and gas supply shortages, the government deliberates a strategy to overcome the crisis and at the same time meet the ever-increasing demand for power. It launched immediate, short, medium and long term programs to increase power supply through the introduction of fuel mix (gas, coal, liquid fuel, nuclear energy and renewable), demand-side management, energy efficiency and conservation. After assessing the latent demand, the government has revised its targets for increasing power generation. The year-wise details of the additional power generation programs, both in public and private, are listed below. 57 plants with a capacity of about 4,432 MW have been commissioned, 33 plants with a capacity of  6,569 MW are under construction. 19 projects with a capacity of about 3,974 MW are under tendering process and 9 plants with a capacity of 3,542 MW are at initial stages.

Fiscal year	2013(MW)	2014(MW)	2015(MW)	2016(MW)	2017(MW)	2018(MW)	Total(MW)
Public	763	889	1773	1285	450	1950	7110
Private	50	1864	1087	1098	2166	0	6265
total	813	2753	2860	2383	2616	1950	13375

Generation Expansion Plan

Immediate: 6 -12 Months

- Rental Plants (liquid fuel)

Short term: 18 – 24 Months

- Peaking Plants (liquid fuel)

Medium term: 3 – 5 years

- Combined Cycle Plants (Gas or dual fuel)

- Peaking Plant (Gas or dual fuel)

- Coal fired steam plants

Long term: beyond 5 years

- LNG based Combined Cycle Plants

- Domestic/Imported Coal Power Plant

- Gas/Oil based Peaking Plant

- Nuclear Power Plant

- Renewable Energy

An assessment of achievements in power sector:

Bangladesh Power Sector at a Glance :
Electricity Growth	15% FY-2014 (Av. 7 % since 1990)
Derarted Capacity	9675MW (February, 2014, source: BPDB)
Generation Capacity	10241MW (February, 2014, source: BPDB)
Maximum Generation	6060.00 MW ( 10th February 2014)
Maximum Generation in History	6675.00 MW (12th July 2013)
Peak demand	9268MW(2014)
Transmission Line	9322 ckt. km
Distribution line	2,90,000 km
Total Consumers	14.2 Million
Newly connected people	3.45 million
Present generation Capacity by Public sector	58%
Present generation Capacity by Public sector	42%
Reduction of System Loss(distribution)	15.67% to 12.03%.
Per Capita Generation	321 kWh (incl. RE)
Access to Electricity	62%

Installed Capacity of BPDB Power Plants as on February 2014
Unit Type	Capacity(Unit)		Total(%)
Coal	250.00	MW	2.44 %
FO	0.00	MW	0 %
Gas	6615.00	MW	64.59 %
HFO	1963.00	MW	19.17 %
HSD	683.00	MW	6.67 %
Hydro	230.00	MW	2.25 %
Imported	500.00	MW	4.88 %
Total	10241.00	MW	100 %

Derated Capacity of BPDB Power Plants as on February 2014
Unit Type	Capacity(Unit)		Total(%)
Coal	200.00	MW	2.07 %
FO	0.00	MW	0 %
Gas	6218.00	MW	64.27 %
HFO	1876.00	MW	19.39 %
HSD	661.00	MW	6.83 %
Hydro	220.00	MW	2.27 %
Imported	500.00	MW	5.17 %
Total	9675.00	MW	100 %

Demand Supply Situation (February 2014):

• Generation: 9675 MW (Capacity- 10241 MW)
• Highest so far: 6060 MW ( February 2014)
• Gas shortage causes 600 – 800 MW less Power Generation
• Peak Demand: 9268 MW
• Load shedding situation is in zero level(demand 5599MW, 12^th February 2014).But, load shedding up to 1000 MW during hot summer days
• Shortage and unreliable power supply has constrained economic growth.

Bangladesh has the fastest growing Solar Home System (SHS) in the world with over one million homes covered under the program being spear headed by IDCOL( a public infrastructure financing entity). Other projects include: 1 MW solar hybrid system along with 5 MW by diesel in Hatia island, 8 MW Solar PV plant in Kaptai, Solar Street lights in six City Corporation areas, replacement of diesel irrigation pump by Solar, 600 kW solar mini grid in a remote area Sullah, 11 KW solar power to the CHT area, nearly 230 W solar power in Angorpota and Dahagram Chitmahal Area. Solar PV with capacity of 21.2 KW at the Bangladesh GOV has been installed as a demonstration project. Other line ministries have also undertaken projects on solar lighting. Bangladesh needs total US$22 billion investments in the power sector to minimize this demand-supply gap. The revised private sector power generation policy of Bangladesh provides a number of incentives for the foreign investment in the power sector.

Prospective Plan:

The government of Bangladesh (GOB) has adopted Power System Master Plan (PSMP) 2010 as the basis for future projects to be undertaken in this sector. As per PSMP 2010, electricity generation would reach to 34,000 MW by 2030. With new generation addition, the total generation capacity would be about 16,500 MW by FY 2018. By that time some power plants will be derated, contracts of some rental power plants will be over and the dependable capacity would be around 13,000 MW. Coal will be the dominating fuel in the future generation. Coal fire plants with capacity of 1320 MW will be set up, in Khulna. The Khulna plant will be set up in joint venture with BPDB of Bangladesh and NTPC of India. Besides, other coal fired plants will be set up in different locations of Khulna, Chittagong, Matarbari and Moheshkhali; 100-200 MW power will be generated from wind. Along with wind mapping, a flag ship wind power project with capacity of 15 MW will be implemented within 2 years.